2016 US Presidential Elections Thread [Trump Wins]

[Hands]

As a Spaniard who voted for Podemos, I feel I need to point out a massive difference: the US political system is designed to actively punish parties that split up and to make radical agendas pretty much undoable. Let me explain. To begin with, I need to point out that the parties rising in Germany, France, Sweden and Holland are more akin to a mix between Trump and Cruz than anything resembling "left-wing", which is slightly terrifying. In fact, a few of those parties started as reformed neo-Fascist outlets, so i don't think that's something to be jealous of.

Second, the places where insurgent left-wing parties have been most successful (Greece, Spain, Italy) are countries that -albeit with bonuses to the winner in G and I- approportion their seats in a proportional way to the vote. You get X votes, you get X seats (again, there are some distortions, but the base is that). So you actually can afford to vote for a new party. In Spain, the Socialists (the equivalent to US Democrats) got 44% of the vote in 2008 and 47% of the seats. This year, the Socialists and Podemos got a combined 43% of the vote... and a combined 43% of the seats. Fair enough! The US, on the other hand, has a First Past The Post system- or Winner Takes All. Meaning, if the Democrats split their votes according to the primary results (55-45), then the resulting two parties would end... with a combined handful of seats in Philadelphia, California and little else. Ever heard about deranged and hated Republican Paul lePage winning blue Maine twice with 30-odd percent of the vote because the left wing split up their votes between two different candidates? That, in all levels of Government, accross all the country, times ten. And this is exactly why the Labour party is trying to kick Corbyn away, fearing a complete wipeout in the next election if they are seen as "too radical" and moderate voters choose to pick the safer-sounding Conservatives, as it already happened in the UK during the 80s.

Third, not only the US has an electoral system that punishes divisions and parties whose leaders seem too radical (see: McGovern, Goldwater), the legislative system is designed to force parties to compromise, drop part of their proposals, pass wishy-washy bargains and flip-flop inside dark rooms. Why? Because, unlike in European systems where Parliament is all-powerful and appoints and removes Governments (and usually the House-equivalent alone, even if there is a Senate), ensuring that both wings are on the same page and can pass laws without too much trouble, in the US there is a complete, absolute division of powers. What does that mean? That one party with barely 41 senators (which is 41% of just 1/3 of Government) can veto every single bill from ever becoming law - even if the other party controls the presidency and has majorities in both houses of Congress. When you give veto power to such a tiny piece of the system, you are essentially forcing both sides to deal. Even if only one of the two sides becomes crazy (see: Republicans), the entire system is doomed into gridlock forever unless both sides compromise in everything.

In other words, the US Constitution was written to encourage moderate, centrist leaders who can deal in the shadows and who can appeal to the largest share of the population by not looking too extreme or radical, and to encourage a "lesser-of-evils" mindset on the voters. Thus, Hillary Clinton. Hence, Trump is tanking. Therefore, insurgent parties simply cannot grow. The US can wake up, but as long as the Constitution is intact, it won't do much good.

Also good luck changing the US Constitution.

I was saying that Germany, France etc are now more left win countries, not that there are new, big left wing movements there. Sorry for any confusion.

The Political system differences are irrelevant to the tides of people who are disenfranchised. Whether or not the constitution pushes moderates is of little value to the millions of Americans who back Sanders, Stein, Johnson or don't vote. The sentiment is still there.

 

[Ivysaur]

I was saying that Germany, France etc are now more left win countries, not that there are new, big left wing movements there. Sorry for any confusion.

The Political system differences are irrelevant to the tides of people who are disenfranchised. Whether or not the constitution pushes moderates is of little value to the millions of Americans who back Sanders, Stein, Johnson or don't vote. The sentiment is still there.

Actually... France and Germany are becoming increasingly right-wing, as moderate socialists collapse and the only upstart parties gathering up angry voters are profoundly right-wing and even neo-fascistic. Not sure where the left-wing idea came from, exactly.

And second, the differences are profoundly relevant, as in a Parliamentary system, Sanders could easily build his own party and win well over a hundred seats in the House without needing to jump into the hoops of the Democratic Party, and Stein and Johnson could have a seat (or a dozen) each and actually get a voice in Congress. In the US, disenfranchised voters can only cry and resign themselves to try and take over a major party in the primaries.

 

[Hands]

Actually... France and Germany are becoming increasingly right-wing, as moderate socialists collapse and the only upstart parties gathering up angry voters are profoundly right-wing and even neo-fascistic. Not sure where the left-wing idea came from, exactly.

And second, the differences are profoundly relevant, as in a Parliamentary system, Sanders could easily build his own party and win well over a hundred seats in the House without needing to jump into the hoops of the Democratic Party, and Stein and Johnson could have a seat (or a dozen) each and actually get a voice in Congress. In the US, disenfranchised voters can only cry and resign themselves to try and take over a major party in the primaries.

Are you honestly suggesting France and Germany, as countries, have more right wing Govts and policies now than they had 10 years ago? You're misunderstanding most of what I'm saying. They have become more left wing countries over time. I never once suggested there are growing left wing movements there, I said they already had left wing govts.

 

[Her]

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/us/politics/donald-trump-mexico-enrique-pena-nieto.html?_r=0

Donald J. Trump will visit Mexico on Wednesday to speak with President Enrique Peña Nieto, a trip that will take him to a nation he has repeatedly scorned as a candidate.

Mr. Trump said on Twitter on Tuesday night that he had accepted an invitation from Mr. Peña Nieto and looked "very much forward" to meeting with him. Mr. Peña Nieto's office confirmed the invitation on Tuesday and said one had also been sent to Hillary Clinton.

The negotiations for the trip were reported in The Washington Post.

Mr. Peña Nieto's outreach to Mr. Trump is likely to strike many Mexicans as odd. Mr. Trump has regularly taken an antagonistic attitude toward Mexico in his policies and campaign rallies, saying many immigrants entering the United States illegally from there are rapists and repeatedly insisting that Mexico will pay for his proposed wall along the southern United States border.

He is widely reviled in the country, where the border wall plans revived deep grievances over sovereignty and respect that have historically dogged Mexico's relationship with the United States.

Politicians in Mexico have largely remained silent on Mr. Trump, though there have been outbursts, including from Mr. Peña Nieto himself. In March, he compared Mr. Trump to Hitler and Mussolini for what he called Mr. Trump's strident remarks and populism, though he later tried to soften his words without quite taking them back. There are likely to be protests during Mr. Trump's visit, which Mr. Peña Nieto's office said would involve a private meeting at the presidential palace in Mexico City.

Quite a lot more in the article itself, but that's the gist of it. What do you guys make of this?

 

[Kanzler]

I'm not surprised. There needs to be the continuation of policy on the part of both Mexico and the US since their relationship is so comprehensive with such close trade, economic, and security ties. It's also an opportunity for both parties to gauge the actual positions of one another, filtered from all the public rhetoric.

 

[Her]

With the first presidential debate happening in exactly two weeks, do you guys have any predictions about how things will go? Do you think that there will be any real bombshells dropped?

 

[gimmepie]

With the first presidential debate happening in exactly two weeks, do you guys have any predictions about how things will go? Do you think that there will be any real bombshells dropped?

At a wild guess Trump will yell baseless rhetoric very loudly, repeatedly mention emails and all around be out-debated by Hillary. Although Trump's supporters will likely talk as though he was in every way superior.

I just hope Hilary doesn't sink down to the same level and rely more on personal attacks and bullshit than discussion of political issues... but I don't know if I see that happening either.

 

[Kanzler]

Hillary Clinton Has Pneumonia.

Expect relentless attacks upon her fitness to be President.

 

[Thepowaofhax]

Hillary Clinton Has Pneumonia.

Expect relentless attacks upon her fitness to be President.

Oh my god, someone got a disease! Clearly that makes them incoherent and not capable of running the United States. We never had a president like this! FDR was never in a wheel chair, nor did Woodrow Wilson have a stroke in his second term, rendering him paralyzed, those are just loony conspiracy theories made by the Democrats. /s.

The only real reason why this is an issue is because the Republicans and Democrats are having a contest on who's side is the shiniest pile of shit, and they need to put any reason possible on why someone shouldn't be in office. Then again, this has been an issue in politics since Nixon vs Kennedy and will probably not stop any time soon.

 

[Livewire]

People are acting like she has Stage IV Cancer or Alzheimer's, it's ridiculous. Although, it does raise an interesting ethical issue between a person's right to privacy, particularly when it pertains to their health, and the ability to be commander in chief sanely and free of any physiological or mental roadblocks. That one time you got sick in the summer on a long and brutal campaign trail has nothing to do with one's mental and physiological ability to be President. Hillary with pneumonia, doped up on Amoxicillin would still make more sane choices than Trump regardless, not sure how that affects one's character or judgment, haha.

 

[gimmepie]

People are acting like she has Stage IV Cancer or Alzheimer's, it's ridiculous. Although, it does raise an interesting ethical issue between a person's right to privacy, particularly when it pertains to their health, and the ability to be commander in chief sanely and free of any physiological or mental roadblocks. That one time you got sick in the summer on a long and brutal campaign trail has nothing to do with one's mental and physiological ability to be President. Hillary with pneumonia, doped up on Amoxicillin would still make more sane choices than Trump regardless, not sure how that affects one's character or judgment, haha.

It shouldn't make a difference but I'm sure Trump's campaign is going to make an enormous deal out of this and I'm sure some people will be stupid enough to buy into it.

 

[Ivysaur]

It shouldn't make a difference but I'm sure Trump's campaign is going to make an enormous deal out of this and I'm sure some people will be stupid enough to buy into it.

The thing is, chances are most of the people stupid enough to buy into it were already voting for Trump regardless.

Another point: since May, polls have been stubbornly flat, save for the conventions (where polls have always gone haywire since there are records, so it doesn't really count). Picture from HuffPost Pollster.

What are the chances Trump suddenly shoots past Clinton when nothing in these past months have caused any of them to budge?

 

[gimmepie]

The thing is, chances are most of the people stupid enough to buy into it were already voting for Trump regardless.

Another point: since May, polls have been stubbornly flat, save for the conventions (where polls have always gone haywire since there are records, so it doesn't really count). Picture from HuffPost Pollster.

What are the chances Trump suddenly shoots past Clinton when nothing in these past months have caused any of them to budge?

You raise a good point.

 

[Mewtwolover]

People are acting like she has Stage IV Cancer or Alzheimer's, it's ridiculous.

Watch this and you'll understand why people are acting like that.

 

[Pinkie-Dawn]

And now there's a conspiracy theory that Hillary Clinton has a body double because of her illness. I know someone who will definitely believe this since he also believes in the 9/11 conspiracy theory. >_>

 

[Esper]

Even if she has an illness it's not like we haven't had presidents will disabilities or anything before. I just wish Clinton were better about being transparent in general so there wouldn't be so much ink wasted talking about these crackpot theories. I know she's done better than Trump at showing her financial and medical records, but for the sake of convincing people she's really got to make the whole campaign feel more transparent.

 

[Kanzler]

Apparently Colin Powell's got some beef with the Clintons and now it's out in the public for everyone to see.

 

[Somewhere_]

Looks like Obama is out touring in place of Hillary Clinton. Do ya'll think she will lose steam because of her sickness?

 

[Kanzler]

Looks like Obama is out touring in place of Hillary Clinton. Do ya'll think she will lose steam because of her sickness?

I think so. From what I know about presidential campaign politics, the trail supposedly heats up after Labour Day. If she's not in the thick of it, it's not going to look good.

 

[gimmepie]

You'd think that after all this fanfare people would mostly have made up their minds by now anyway. How big a difference could it make, same as Went said.